This week, I attended two public forums about school capacity issues in Fredericksburg. These forums were hosted jointly by the City and Fredericksburg City Schools. Both events were well attended, which is very encouraging.
In short, there is no easy answer to the school capacity problem.
The one thing for which there was broad consensus was the need for more information before they could form answers to the questions posed. A majority of people requested feasibility studies while asking the city to “tap the brakes” until all options are more fully developed and shared with the public.
A number of people questioned whether the future of education was limited to actual school buildings, and still others questioned whether a focus on a building would take away from students’ needs such as pre-school enhancements, specials classes, at-risk services, academics and test scores, recruitment and retention of good teachers, our low graduation rate, and other important issues that are present in our schools. At the top of almost everyone’s list was the need for the City to address workforce development in a tangible, meaningful way.
Multiple options were suggested, including, but not limited to:
Repeatedly residents said that better population growth data is needed before a decision is made – particularly the enrollment estimates from Moseley and Weldon/Cooper which did not involve rigorous analysis of upcoming residential real estate development. Barring a serious recession, the recent trend in new housing construction will continue, significantly impacting on school enrollment.
A sobering way to look at it is to ask this question: “How many people will be living in Fredericksburg by the end of this decade or the next?”
If current trends continue, our population (now at 28,500) could reach 40,000 in this time frame.
Based on a current ratio of 12 students per 100 residents, adding 11,500 new residents means around 1,300 more children in our public schools than we currently have. It should be clear that whatever solutions we come up with now to address current overcrowding must to be responsive to this trend.
Naturally, the issue of cost came up. Pretty much everyone realized that the City could not take on a $35-million-dollar debt to build a new elementary school in the near future, and questioned whether that would really solve the problem as the children went up in grades. Will we be having this conversation about a new middle school in a few years?
Brick-and-mortar construction is expensive, and there are staffing and operational costs to consider as well. The City already carries substantial debt that won’t be retired anytime soon, and we have additional capital improvement/infrastructure needs including a fire station and wastewater treatment facility could run upwards of $90 Million.
Some folks asked if residential builders will share in the cost of schools, using proffers. Potentially, yes. The State Legislature relaxed the proffer rules statewide in 2019, but local jurisdictions are struggling to interpret them, and our City officials are still determining a clear vision on proffers. More work needs to be done on this front, and fast, so that City officials and developers have clear expectations going forward.
Again, I came away from these forums encouraged by the community involvement. I firmly believe that an informed community is the best tool in our toolbox when making big decisions that affect a wide spectrum of residents.
School capacity options are one of the biggest challenges the City faces. No one has “the answer” - the City and School staff and leaders, and the public at-large, need more information and more opportunities for discussion to develop creative, effective solutions. It’s time.
